Detached Swansea home near High Park with stated building potential; land/appreciation play
A 3+1 bedroom detached home on a tree-lined Swansea street, listed at $1,249,000 with a referenced building potential report. Rental economics are deeply negative under leverage; the thesis here is land value, school catchment, and long-term appreciation rather than current yield.
Anatoli Chtcherbatov
Analyst · Sutton Group Admiral Realty
List price
$1,249,000
Cap rate
+0.84%
Est. monthly rent
$2,800
Source: comparables_widened
Est. net spread
+$287K
6mo hold
Annualized ROI
+46%
preliminary
The Deal
A 3+1 bedroom detached home on a tree-lined Swansea street, listed at $1,249,000 with a referenced building potential report.
Fix-and-flip projection
The spread, before the buy-and-hold math.
Preliminary · adjust scope & uplift
Renovation scope
Projection
Preliminary estimate. Renovation costs use 6Yield default per-sqft figures. Post-renovation value is modeled as a multiple of list price — replace with comparable post-renovation sales for higher precision. Carrying costs include property tax, condo fees if any, and insurance; financing costs not yet modeled.
Section · Buy-and-hold backup
If you held instead. The carrying math, side by side.
Each column shows the actual monthly cash flow and cash-on-cash return at that leverage. Click a column for the full breakdown.
Acquisition
| Down payment | $437,150 |
| Mortgage principal | $811,850 |
| Land transfer tax | $18,735 |
| Closing costs | $18,735 |
| Total acquisition | $474,620 |
Monthly cash flow
| Estimated rent | +$2,800 |
| Operating expenses | -$1,925 |
| Mortgage payment | -$4,741 |
| Net cash flow | -$3,867/mo |
Expense breakdown
| Property tax | $0/mo |
| Vacancy allowance | $140/mo |
| Maintenance reserve | $1,041/mo |
| Insurance | $520/mo |
| Property management | $224/mo |
Math by deterministic Python calculator. Rate 4.99% over 25 years. Rent source: comparables_widened (63 comps).
Breakeven
This property turns cash-flow positive at 88.0% down.
Run your own scenario
Move the assumptions. See the math live.
Live result
All figures are estimates only and do not constitute financial advice. The sliders use the same math as the locked five-scenario calculator; only assumptions change. Total acquisition includes the down payment, land transfer tax ($18,735), and closing costs ($18,735).
Section · Investment Thesis
Why this property.
16 Coe Hill Drive is a two-storey stone and brick detached home in Swansea, listed at $1,249,000, with 3+1 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a renovated main floor, and a fully fenced west-facing backyard. The listing references an "exceptional building potential" report, which positions this asset more as a Swansea land and redevelopment play than a stabilized rental. Estimated annual NOI is $10,497 against a $1,249,000 price, producing an estimated cap rate of 0.84% and gross yield of 2.69% on an estimated monthly market rent of $2,800 (rent benchmarked against 63 widened comparables).
Leverage sensitivity here is severe and investors should plan accordingly. At 20% down, the estimated monthly mortgage payment is $5,835.40 and estimated monthly cash flow is -$4,960.65, a -20.72% cash-on-cash return. Moving to 35% down narrows the bleed to an estimated -$3,866.52 per month (-9.78% cash-on-cash), and 50% down still leaves an estimated -$2,772.38 per month (-5.03%). Even at 75% down, the property runs an estimated -$948.81 per month (-1.17% cash-on-cash). Only at a 100% cash purchase does carry turn positive, at an estimated +$874.75 per month and a 0.82% cash-on-cash return. The minimum recommended down payment for neutral or positive carry is therefore 100% cash; no leveraged scenario reaches breakeven at the 4.99% rate and 25-year amortization used.
The investment case is not current yield. It is the combination of a Swansea lot inside the Swansea P.S. and Humberside C.I. catchments, proximity to High Park, Grenadier Pond, the Humber River, Bloor West Village, and the 501 Queen streetcar, plus the stated building potential. For a buyer underwriting a future custom build, infill, or long-hold family-rental hybrid, the carry needs to be funded out of pocket or absorbed through an owner-occupied period. Underwrite this as a capital-preservation and appreciation hold, not a cash-flow asset.
Hold period should be long, 60+ months, to allow either redevelopment execution or organic west-end appreciation to compensate for the negative running yield. Investors who cannot comfortably fund the estimated monthly shortfalls at their chosen leverage point should pass.
Key features
- Detached two-storey stone and brick home on a tree-lined Swansea street
- 3+1 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, renovated main floor with quartz kitchen
- Fully fenced west-facing backyard with mature trees and perennial gardens
- Private driveway with parking for at least two vehicles
- Building potential report referenced in listing
- Swansea P.S. and Humberside C.I. school catchments
- Walking distance to High Park, Grenadier Pond, and Bloor West Village
- Transit via 501 Queen streetcar and Bloor West bus connections
Original MLS description
Discover an inviting detached residence in Swansea, tucked along a peaceful, tree-lined street. Thoughtfully updated while preserving its classic appeal, this two-storey stone and brick home offers an ideal blend of comfort and functionality. Inside, you'll find 3+1 bedrooms, a bright renovated main floor with seamless flow, a modern kitchen with quartz counters, and a convenient powder room. Step outside to a beautiful fully fenced west-facing backyard with mature trees, lawn, and perennial gardens-offering a private setting with plenty of space to relax or entertain. A private driveway with parking for at least two vehicles completes this move-in-ready home. Positioned to enjoy the best of the west end, this home places you moments from scenic lakefront trails, Grenadier Pond and Catfish Pond, and the expansive greenery of High Park, as well as the Humber River. Everyday essentials and local favourites-including the Cheese Boutique, nearby Sobeys, and the vibrant shops and dining along Bloor West Village-are all within reach. Enjoy Rennie Park, the Swansea Community Centre, dedicated bike lanes, multi-use trails, and Sunnyside Bike Park just steps away. Convenient transit options include a quick bus to Bloor West Village or the 501 streetcar via Queen Street to downtown. Located within the highly regarded Swansea P.S. and Humberside C.I. catchments, this is an opportunity to enter a beautiful neighbourhood with enduring appeal. Not to mention, exceptional building potential -- report available. (42920123)
Section · Neighborhood
Where it sits.
High Park-Swansea
Swansea and the broader High Park-Swansea pocket is one of Toronto's most established west-end family neighbourhoods, anchored by High Park, Grenadier Pond, the Humber River, and the Lake Ontario waterfront trail system. The listing highlights walkability to the Cheese Boutique, Sobeys, Bloor West Village shops and dining, Rennie Park, the Swansea Community Centre, and Sunnyside Bike Park, plus dedicated bike lanes and multi-use trails.
Transit access includes a bus connection to Bloor West Village and the 501 Queen streetcar for downtown trips, with Runnymede and Jane subway stations on the Bloor-Danforth line within the broader catchment. The property sits inside the Swansea P.S. and Humberside C.I. school catchments, which historically support resale demand from end-user families and underpin long-term land values in this part of the west end.
Section · Risk
What could go wrong.
Honest framing of unknowns, assumptions, and downside scenarios.
High leverage sensitivity: no scenario from 20% to 75% down produces positive monthly cash flow at the 4.99% rate and 25-year amortization used
Negative carry at all leveraged scenarios; only a 100% cash purchase produces positive estimated monthly cash flow of $874.75 (0.82% cash-on-cash)
Estimated cap rate of 0.84% is well below financing cost, signaling this is an appreciation/land play rather than an income asset
Rent estimate of $2,800 is drawn from widened comparables (63 properties), which may not perfectly reflect a detached Swansea home; actual achievable rent could vary
Building potential is referenced in the listing but execution (permits, design, construction cost, timeline) is the buyer's responsibility and a separate capital commitment
Property tax and insurance carrying costs in the model use defaults; verify actual figures during due diligence
Reported sqft field (65) appears to be a data error and should be verified before underwriting