End-unit ravine townhouse in Iroquois Ridge catchment, near-neutral carry at 35% down
A 3-bed end-unit townhouse backing onto a ravine in Oakville's Falgarwood pocket, listed at $618,000 with an estimated 4.58% cap rate. The asset reaches roughly breakeven carry at 35% down and produces meaningful cash flow only at 50% down or higher.
Anatoli Chtcherbatov
Analyst · Sutton Group Admiral Realty
List price
$618,000
Cap rate
+4.58%
Est. monthly rent
$3,600
Source: comparables_widened
CF at 35% down
+$14/mo
first positive
Cash-on-cash
+0.07%
at 35% down
The Deal
A 3-bed end-unit townhouse backing onto a ravine in Oakville's Falgarwood pocket, listed at $618,000 with an estimated 4.
Section · Financial Reality
Five ways to buy. The math, side by side.
Each column shows the actual monthly cash flow and cash-on-cash return at that leverage. Click a column for the full breakdown.
Acquisition
| Down payment | $216,300 |
| Mortgage principal | $401,700 |
| Land transfer tax | $9,270 |
| Closing costs | $9,270 |
| Total acquisition | $234,840 |
Monthly cash flow
| Estimated rent | +$3,600 |
| Operating expenses | -$1,241 |
| Mortgage payment | -$2,346 |
| Net cash flow | +$14/mo |
Expense breakdown
| Property tax | $0/mo |
| Vacancy allowance | $180/mo |
| Maintenance reserve | $515/mo |
| Insurance | $258/mo |
| Property management | $288/mo |
Math by deterministic Python calculator. Rate 4.99% over 25 years. Rent source: comparables_widened (40 comps).
Breakeven
This property turns cash-flow positive at 34.6% down.
Run your own scenario
Move the assumptions. See the math live.
Live result
All figures are estimates only and do not constitute financial advice. The sliders use the same math as the locked five-scenario calculator; only assumptions change. Total acquisition includes the down payment, land transfer tax ($9,270), and closing costs ($9,270).
Section · Investment Thesis
Why this property.
This Falgarwood end-unit townhouse is positioned as a hybrid hold: priced at $618,000 with estimated gross annual rent of $43,200 and projected annual NOI of $28,314, it pencils to an estimated 4.58% cap rate and 6.99% gross yield. The Iroquois Ridge High School catchment and proximity to the QEW/403 and Oakville GO support sustained tenant demand from family renters, while the ravine-backing end-unit configuration differentiates the unit within the complex.
Leverage sensitivity is high. At 20% down ($123,600), the estimated monthly mortgage payment of $2,887.33 produces an estimated monthly cash flow of -$527.83 and a cash-on-cash return of -4.46%, requiring monthly out-of-pocket support. At 35% down ($216,300), the property approaches breakeven with estimated monthly cash flow of $13.54 and a 0.07% cash-on-cash return; this is the minimum recommended down payment for neutral carry. At 50% down ($309,000), estimated monthly cash flow rises to $554.92 (2.03% cash-on-cash), and at 75% down ($463,500) it reaches an estimated $1,457.21 per month (3.63% cash-on-cash). An all-cash buyer at $618,000 would see an estimated $2,359.50 monthly cash flow and a 4.45% cash-on-cash return, matching the unlevered cap rate.
The swing between scenarios, roughly $2,887 per month between 20% down and 100% cash, makes capital structure the dominant return driver here. Investors prioritizing monthly carry should plan for at least 35% down to avoid feeding the property, and 50% or more to generate material distributable cash flow. Appreciation-oriented buyers can tolerate the leveraged scenario if they have liquidity to fund the negative carry, given the school catchment and infrastructure access.
Recommended hold is 60+ months to absorb closing costs (estimated land transfer tax $9,270, closing costs $9,270) and ride out near-term rate sensitivity. This is best suited to intermediate investors comfortable underwriting a thin-margin GTA rental where the bulk of return is unlevered yield plus long-term Oakville fundamentals.
Key features
- End-unit townhouse backing onto ravine
- Just under 1,700 sqft of living space
- 3 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms
- 1 underground parking space
- Enclosed terrace with greenery views
- Skylight in primary bedroom
- Iroquois Ridge High School catchment
- Minutes to QEW/403 and Oakville GO Station
Original MLS description
Perfect for first-time buyers and investors, this spacious end-unit townhouse offers more than meets the eye in a highly desired location backing onto a peaceful ravine. The open-concept main floor features laminate flooring and an inviting eat-in kitchen, seamlessly flowing into a bright living and dining space with a walk-out to an enclosed terrace overlooking lush greenery - your own private retreat. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is filled with natural light, complete with a skylight and direct access to the terrace, alongside well-proportioned additional bedrooms. Offering just under 1,700 sqft of living space, this home also includes 1 underground parking space with easy access. Ideally located within the highly regarded Iroquois Ridge High School district, and just minutes to major highways (QEW/403), Oakville GO Station, parks, trails, and Community Centre. A rare opportunity to own a well-sized ravine property - don't miss it. (42918254)
Section · Neighborhood
Where it sits.
FA Falgarwood
Falgarwood is an established east Oakville pocket bounded by mature tree cover and the Sixteen Mile Creek ravine system. The subject sits within the Iroquois Ridge High School catchment, a consistent driver of family rental demand, and is minutes from the QEW/403 interchange and Oakville GO Station for commuters into Mississauga and downtown Toronto.
Local amenities include the Iroquois Ridge Community Centre, trail access, and neighbourhood parks. The combination of school catchment, transit access, and ravine setting supports stable end-user and tenant demand in the segment.
Section · Risk
What could go wrong.
Honest framing of unknowns, assumptions, and downside scenarios.
High leverage sensitivity: negative monthly carry at 20% down (estimated -$527.83/month) requires owner to fund shortfall
Breakeven carry only achieved at 35% down or higher
Rent estimate derived from widened comparables (40 comps); actual achievable rent may differ
Property tax and maintenance fee shown as $0 in provided financials; investor should verify actual condo fees and tax bill before closing
Listed sqft field (148) appears inconsistent with description's reference to just under 1,700 sqft; verify floor area