Forest Hill South 50-ft lot: detached 4-bed land-value play at $2,388,000
A 4-bedroom detached home on a 50-foot lot in Forest Hill South, priced at $2,388,000 and positioned as a land-and-location acquisition rather than a yield play. Rental economics are negative across all five leverage scenarios, so the thesis rests on long-hold appreciation, end-user upside, or a new-build redevelopment path.
Anatoli Chtcherbatov
Analyst · Sutton Group Admiral Realty
List price
$2,388,000
Cap rate
-0.04%
Est. monthly rent
$3,350
Source: comparables_widened
Est. net spread
+$548K
6mo hold
Annualized ROI
+46%
preliminary
The Deal
A 4-bedroom detached home on a 50-foot lot in Forest Hill South, priced at $2,388,000 and positioned as a land-and-location acquisition rather than a yield play.
Fix-and-flip projection
The spread, before the buy-and-hold math.
Preliminary · adjust scope & uplift
Renovation scope
Projection
Preliminary estimate. Renovation costs use 6Yield default per-sqft figures. Post-renovation value is modeled as a multiple of list price — replace with comparable post-renovation sales for higher precision. Carrying costs include property tax, condo fees if any, and insurance; financing costs not yet modeled.
Section · Buy-and-hold backup
If you held instead. The carrying math, side by side.
Each column shows the actual monthly cash flow and cash-on-cash return at that leverage. Click a column for the full breakdown.
Acquisition
| Down payment | $835,800 |
| Mortgage principal | $1,552,200 |
| Land transfer tax | $35,820 |
| Closing costs | $35,820 |
| Total acquisition | $907,440 |
Monthly cash flow
| Estimated rent | +$3,350 |
| Operating expenses | -$3,421 |
| Mortgage payment | -$9,065 |
| Net cash flow | -$9,135/mo |
Expense breakdown
| Property tax | $0/mo |
| Vacancy allowance | $168/mo |
| Maintenance reserve | $1,990/mo |
| Insurance | $995/mo |
| Property management | $268/mo |
Math by deterministic Python calculator. Rate 4.99% over 25 years. Rent source: comparables_widened (24 comps).
Breakeven
Negative carry at every scenario. Rent does not cover operating expenses; mortgage adds further drag.
Run your own scenario
Move the assumptions. See the math live.
Live result
All figures are estimates only and do not constitute financial advice. The sliders use the same math as the locked five-scenario calculator; only assumptions change. Total acquisition includes the down payment, land transfer tax ($35,820), and closing costs ($35,820).
Section · Investment Thesis
Why this property.
603 Spadina Road is listed at $2,388,000 in Forest Hill South, one of Toronto's established luxury enclaves. The raw description frames the opportunity as a "premium 50 ft lot, surrounded by luxury custom homes and ongoing redevelopment," with optionality to "restore and personalize a character home, or to take advantage of the lot and pursue a new build." Investors should underwrite this as a land-and-location acquisition, not a rental cash-flow asset. Estimated gross annual rent is $40,200 against $3,420.50 of monthly operating expenses, producing an estimated annual NOI of -$846 and an estimated cap rate of -0.04%.
Leverage sensitivity is extreme because rent does not cover carrying costs at any down-payment level. At 20% down ($477,600), the estimated monthly mortgage is $11,156.88 and estimated monthly cash flow is -$11,227.38, a -24.53% cash-on-cash return. At 35% down ($835,800), estimated monthly cash flow is -$9,135.47 (-12.08% cash-on-cash). At 50% down ($1,194,000), estimated monthly cash flow is -$7,043.55 (-6.68%). At 75% down ($1,791,000), estimated monthly cash flow improves to -$3,557.03 (-2.29%). Even at 100% cash ($2,388,000), estimated monthly cash flow is still -$70.50 (-0.03% cash-on-cash). There is no down-payment scenario that delivers positive carry; the closest to breakeven is the 100% cash scenario, which is the minimum recommended structure for any buyer who wants to neutralize carrying-cost drag.
Because every leverage scenario is negative, this property is unsuitable for a cash-flow strategy. It fits buyers underwriting Forest Hill South land value, end-user families who want a 4-bed detached on a 50-foot lot walking distance to UCC and BSS, or developers evaluating a custom-build exercise. The raw description notes a "separate entrance to a potential rental income basement," which could narrow the operating gap if executed, but is not modeled in the financials above. Hold-period expectations should be long, 60-plus months, with returns driven by neighbourhood appreciation and any value-add executed by the buyer, not by in-place rent.
Closing costs and Toronto/Ontario land transfer tax are estimated at $35,820 each, bringing the estimated total acquisition cost to $549,240 at 20% down and $2,459,640 at 100% cash. Buyers should stress-test their holding capacity against the negative annual cash flow figures across all five scenarios before committing.
Original MLS description
Located in one of Toronto's most established and prestigious neighbourhoods. 603 Spadina Rd sits on a premium 50 ft lot, surrounded by luxury custom homes and ongoing redevelopment. Whether your vision is to restore and personalize a character home, or to take advantage of the lot and pursue a new build, this address presents flexibility that is increasingly hard to find in Forest Hill.The home offers a functional layout with generous room sizes and solid structure, with a separate entrance to a potential rental income basement ($$$).This beautifully updated home features a brand new interlocking widened driveway with parking for up to 3 cars, a newly finished basement with high ceilings, and new flooring throughout all levels. The spacious second floor offers 4 generously sized bedrooms, making it perfect for families.Walking distance to top-tier private schools(UCC,BSS) parks, transit, and the amenities of Forest Hill Village, this is a strategic acquisition for buyers looking beyond turnkey properties and focusing on location-driven upside. (42917838)
Section · Risk
What could go wrong.
Honest framing of unknowns, assumptions, and downside scenarios.
No risks flagged by the QA agent.