Detached Long Branch 2-storey on spacious lot: end-user, renovator, or builder play near the lake
A 3-bed, 1.5-bath detached home in Long Branch listed at $999,000, positioned for renovation, rebuild, or long-term hold near Marie Curtis Park and Humber College. Rental economics are negative under leverage; the thesis here is land value and west-Toronto lakeside appreciation rather than in-place cash flow.
Anatoli Chtcherbatov
Analyst · Sutton Group Admiral Realty
List price
$999,000
Cap rate
+1.43%
Est. monthly rent
$2,800
Source: comparables_widened
Est. net spread
+$227K
6mo hold
Annualized ROI
+45%
preliminary
The Deal
A 3-bed, 1.
Fix-and-flip projection
The spread, before the buy-and-hold math.
Preliminary · adjust scope & uplift
Renovation scope
Projection
Preliminary estimate. Renovation costs use 6Yield default per-sqft figures. Post-renovation value is modeled as a multiple of list price — replace with comparable post-renovation sales for higher precision. Carrying costs include property tax, condo fees if any, and insurance; financing costs not yet modeled.
Section · Buy-and-hold backup
If you held instead. The carrying math, side by side.
Each column shows the actual monthly cash flow and cash-on-cash return at that leverage. Click a column for the full breakdown.
Acquisition
| Down payment | $349,650 |
| Mortgage principal | $649,350 |
| Land transfer tax | $14,985 |
| Closing costs | $14,985 |
| Total acquisition | $379,620 |
Monthly cash flow
| Estimated rent | +$2,800 |
| Operating expenses | -$1,613 |
| Mortgage payment | -$3,792 |
| Net cash flow | -$2,605/mo |
Expense breakdown
| Property tax | $0/mo |
| Vacancy allowance | $140/mo |
| Maintenance reserve | $833/mo |
| Insurance | $416/mo |
| Property management | $224/mo |
Math by deterministic Python calculator. Rate 4.99% over 25 years. Rent source: comparables_widened (63 comps).
Breakeven
This property turns cash-flow positive at 79.7% down.
Run your own scenario
Move the assumptions. See the math live.
Live result
All figures are estimates only and do not constitute financial advice. The sliders use the same math as the locked five-scenario calculator; only assumptions change. Total acquisition includes the down payment, land transfer tax ($14,985), and closing costs ($14,985).
Section · Investment Thesis
Why this property.
This is a land-and-location play in Long Branch, one of west Toronto's lakeside pockets, listed at $999,000. The estimated gross annual rent of $33,600 against an estimated annual NOI of $14,247 produces an estimated cap rate of 1.43% and an estimated gross yield of 3.36%, well below debt service at the 4.99% mortgage rate used over a 25-year amortization. Investors should treat the in-place rental as a holding-cost offset rather than a yield engine.
Leverage sensitivity here is high. At 20% down ($199,800), estimated monthly cash flow is -$3,480.14 with a cash-on-cash return of -18.18%. At 35% down ($349,650), estimated monthly cash flow improves to -$2,605.00 (-8.23% cash-on-cash). At 50% down ($499,500), estimated monthly cash flow is -$1,729.87 (-3.92%). At 75% down ($749,250), the property approaches breakeven at an estimated -$271.31 per month (-0.42%). Only a 100% cash purchase ($999,000) produces positive carry, with estimated monthly cash flow of $1,187.25 and a 1.38% cash-on-cash return. The minimum down payment for near-neutral carry is 75%; full positive carry requires an all-cash purchase.
The investment case is therefore not rental yield but optionality on a detached lot in a high-demand lakeside neighborhood. The listing description notes "an unfinished basement with room to customize, expand, or create additional living space" and a "spacious lot with a private fenced backyard," with explicit appeal to "end users, investors, renovators, and builders." Proximity to Humber College, Marie Curtis Park, Lake Ontario, TTC, GO Transit, and major routes supports both end-user demand and rental absorption during a hold or renovation period.
Recommended hold is 60+ months given the negative carry profile and the time required to execute a renovation or build strategy. Buyers using leverage should budget for monthly top-ups; cash buyers receive modest positive yield while preserving the redevelopment option. Closing costs are estimated at $14,985 in addition to land transfer tax of $14,985.
Key features
- 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath 2-storey detached
- Spacious lot with private fenced backyard
- Unfinished basement with expansion potential
- Updated kitchen and separate dining space
- Minutes to Humber College, Marie Curtis Park, Lake Ontario
- Access to TTC, GO Transit, and major routes
- Suited to end users, investors, renovators, and builders
Original MLS description
Welcome to this 2-storey detached home in sought-after Long Branch, offering a rare opportunity to own a detached property in one of west Toronto's most vibrant lakeside communities. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features a bright living area, separate dining space, updated kitchen, and an unfinished basement with room to customize, expand, or create additional living space. Set on a spacious lot with a private fenced backyard, the property offers excellent potential for end users, investors, renovators, and builders alike. Enjoy being minutes from Humber College, Marie Curtis Park, Lake Ontario, local shops, restaurants, schools, TTC, GO Transit, and major routes. A fantastic opportunity to move in, renovate, invest, or build your future in Long Branch. (42886409)
All photos
41 additional · click any to expand
Section · Neighborhood
Where it sits.
Long Branch
Long Branch is an established lakeside community in west Toronto with a mix of detached homes, infill townhomes, and custom rebuilds. The listing cites proximity to Humber College, Marie Curtis Park, Lake Ontario, local shops, restaurants, schools, TTC, and GO Transit, alongside access to major routes. These drivers support both end-user demand and tenant absorption, and the area's pattern of detached-lot redevelopment underpins the builder and renovator appeal noted in the listing.
Section · Risk
What could go wrong.
Honest framing of unknowns, assumptions, and downside scenarios.
Negative cash flow at all leveraged scenarios (20%, 35%, 50%, 75% down); only 100% cash produces positive carry
High leverage sensitivity: monthly cash flow swings from -$3,480.14 at 20% down to +$1,187.25 at 100% cash
Estimated cap rate of 1.43% is well below the 4.99% mortgage rate used, meaning debt is dilutive
Renovation or rebuild thesis carries construction cost, permitting, and timeline risk
Rent estimate is from widened comparables (63 comps), not in-place lease; actual achievable rent may differ
Property tax shown as $0 in the financials payload; buyers should verify actual municipal tax with the listing
Reported sqft of 102 appears to be a data artifact and should be verified on site