0.88-acre Mill Pond estate lot on Bathurst with mixed-use zoning upside
A 0.88-acre Richmond Hill estate lot on Bathurst Street with over 3,500 sq ft of custom-built living space and a finished in-law suite. The thesis here is land assembly and redevelopment optionality, not in-place cash flow, which is negative across every financing scenario.
Anatoli Chtcherbatov
Analyst · Sutton Group Admiral Realty
List price
$2,500,000
Cap rate
-0.48%
Est. monthly rent
$2,450
Source: comparables_city_avg
Thesis
Long-hold
negative carry expected
Hold period
60+ mo
planned
The Deal
A 0.
Section · Financial Reality
Five ways to buy. The math, side by side.
Each column shows the actual monthly cash flow and cash-on-cash return at that leverage. Click a column for the full breakdown.
Acquisition
| Down payment | $875,000 |
| Mortgage principal | $1,625,000 |
| Land transfer tax | $37,500 |
| Closing costs | $37,500 |
| Total acquisition | $950,000 |
Monthly cash flow
| Estimated rent | +$2,450 |
| Operating expenses | -$3,444 |
| Mortgage payment | -$9,490 |
| Net cash flow | -$10,484/mo |
Expense breakdown
| Property tax | $0/mo |
| Vacancy allowance | $123/mo |
| Maintenance reserve | $2,083/mo |
| Insurance | $1,042/mo |
| Property management | $196/mo |
Math by deterministic Python calculator. Rate 4.99% over 25 years. Rent source: comparables_city_avg (80 comps).
Breakeven
Negative carry at every scenario. Rent does not cover operating expenses; mortgage adds further drag.
Run your own scenario
Move the assumptions. See the math live.
Live result
All figures are estimates only and do not constitute financial advice. The sliders use the same math as the locked five-scenario calculator; only assumptions change. Total acquisition includes the down payment, land transfer tax ($37,500), and closing costs ($37,500).
Section · Investment Thesis
Why this property.
This is a land-and-location play in Richmond Hill's Mill Pond pocket, not a yield investment. The property sits on an oversized 0.88-acre lot fronting Bathurst Street, with a custom-built home offering over 3,500 sq ft above grade plus a newly renovated basement with a separate-entrance in-law suite. The listing explicitly cites mixed-use zoning and flexible zoning permissions on a high-demand corridor, which is the core of the appreciation thesis. List price is $2,500,000.
In-place economics do not support a traditional buy-and-hold model. Estimated gross annual rent is $29,400 against monthly operating expenses of $3,443.50, producing an estimated annual NOI of -$11,922 and an estimated cap rate of -0.48%. Every leverage scenario shows negative carry. At 20% down, estimated monthly cash flow is -$12,673.65 with a -26.45% cash-on-cash return. At 35% down, estimated monthly cash flow is -$10,483.62 (-13.24%). At 50% down, -$8,293.59 (-7.51%). At 75% down, -$4,643.55 (-2.86%). Even at 100% cash, estimated monthly cash flow is -$993.50 with a -0.46% cash-on-cash return. No scenario reaches neutral carry, so the minimum recommended position is an all-cash purchase, and even that requires the buyer to underwrite a monthly operating shortfall against future land value.
Leverage sensitivity is high in absolute dollar terms: monthly carry swings roughly $11,680 between the 20% down and 100% cash scenarios, driven entirely by debt service at the 4.99% rate used. Because rent does not service debt at any reasonable loan-to-value ratio, this property suits a buyer with substantial equity, ideally cash or near-cash, who is willing to hold while the corridor's mixed-use redevelopment thesis matures. The basement suite, with a full kitchen, two bedrooms, and a bathroom, provides interim income optionality during the hold.
The appropriate buyer profiles are custom home builders, land bankers, and investors targeting a 60+ month hold with a redevelopment or assembly exit. Pure cash-flow investors should pass. Anyone underwriting this asset should obtain independent confirmation of permitted uses, density, and frontage requirements under the current zoning before committing capital.
Key features
- 0.88-acre lot with prime Bathurst Street frontage
- Over 3,500 sq ft of above-grade living space
- 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms including 2 ensuites
- Newly renovated basement (2026) with full kitchen, 2 bedrooms, bathroom, and separate entrance
- Mixed-use zoning cited in listing, redevelopment optionality
- In-law suite supports multi-generational use or interim rental income
- Mature landscaping, private backyard, estate-style setting
Original MLS description
Prime location meets exceptional opportunity on this oversized 0.88-acre lot in sought-afterRichmond Hill. This custom-built home showcases quality craftsmanship and offers over 3,500 sq ft of living space, plus a fully finished basement with a large in-law suite and separate entrance-delivering space, versatility, and outstanding future potential.The main residence features 5 spacious bedrooms and 4 bathrooms including 2 ensuite baths, with generous principal rooms designed for comfortable family living and effortless entertaining.The newly renovated basement (2026) includes a full kitchen, 2 bedrooms, and a bathroom, making it ideal for extended family, multi-generational living, or added income potential.Surrounded by mature landscaping and offering exceptional privacy with backyard oasis, this property provides a rare estate-style setting just minutes from urban amenities, major routes, and everyday conveniences. Located within an evolving neighborhood with mixed-use zoning, the property presents significant long-term upside for redevelopment or strategic investment.With its prime frontage and flexible zoning permissions, this is a standout opportunity for custom home builders, investors, or small business owners looking to capitalize on a high-demand corridor.Whether you're searching for a spacious family home, an income-generating property, or a redevelopment project with strong future value, this is a rare offering that truly has it all. (42841076)
Section · Neighborhood
Where it sits.
Mill Pond
Mill Pond is one of Richmond Hill's established residential pockets, with mature streetscapes and proximity to Yonge Street amenities, Mackenzie Health hospital, and Highway 407/404 access. The subject sits directly on Bathurst Street, a north-south arterial that York Region has flagged for higher-density and mixed-use intensification over the long term.
The corridor's appeal to redevelopment capital is tied to frontage, lot depth, and zoning flexibility rather than current rental demand. Buyers should treat this as a land-driven hold in an evolving zoning environment, with municipal planning updates and any Official Plan amendments materially affecting the exit thesis.
Section · Risk
What could go wrong.
Honest framing of unknowns, assumptions, and downside scenarios.
Negative cash flow at every down-payment scenario including 100% cash (-$993.50/month estimated)
Estimated cap rate is negative at -0.48%; this is not a yield asset
High leverage sensitivity: monthly carry deteriorates by roughly $11,680 from 100% cash to 20% down
Reported sqft field shows 325 which conflicts with the listing's stated 3,500+ sq ft of living space; verify measurements independently
Annual property tax is listed as $0, which is implausible for a $2.5M Richmond Hill property; buyer must verify actual tax assessment
Redevelopment thesis depends on zoning interpretation; permitted uses, density, and timing require independent municipal confirmation
Basement renovation dated 2026 in listing; verify completion status and permits
No recent sold comparables available to validate pricing