Brand-new Dunbarton detached with legal 2-bed basement suite, minutes to 401 and Pickering GO
A brand-new 4+2 bed, 4 bath detached in Pickering's Dunbarton community with a builder-installed legal separate entrance and second kitchen. Strong end-user appeal and in-law/rental flexibility, but estimated cash flow is negative across all leveraged scenarios at current rent assumptions.
Anatoli Chtcherbatov
Analyst · Sutton Group Admiral Realty
List price
$1,188,800
Cap rate
+1.57%
Est. monthly rent
$3,500
Source: comparables_widened
CF at 100% cash
+$1,559/mo
+1.5% CoC
Hold period
60+ mo
planned
The Deal
A brand-new 4+2 bed, 4 bath detached in Pickering's Dunbarton community with a builder-installed legal separate entrance and second kitchen.
Section · Financial Reality
Five ways to buy. The math, side by side.
Each column shows the actual monthly cash flow and cash-on-cash return at that leverage. Click a column for the full breakdown.
Acquisition
| Down payment | $416,080 |
| Mortgage principal | $772,720 |
| Land transfer tax | $17,832 |
| Closing costs | $17,832 |
| Total acquisition | $451,744 |
Monthly cash flow
| Estimated rent | +$3,500 |
| Operating expenses | -$1,941 |
| Mortgage payment | -$4,513 |
| Net cash flow | -$2,954/mo |
Expense breakdown
| Property tax | $0/mo |
| Vacancy allowance | $175/mo |
| Maintenance reserve | $991/mo |
| Insurance | $495/mo |
| Property management | $280/mo |
Math by deterministic Python calculator. Rate 4.99% over 25 years. Rent source: comparables_widened (17 comps).
Breakeven
This property turns cash-flow positive at 77.5% down.
Run your own scenario
Move the assumptions. See the math live.
Live result
All figures are estimates only and do not constitute financial advice. The sliders use the same math as the locked five-scenario calculator; only assumptions change. Total acquisition includes the down payment, land transfer tax ($17,832), and closing costs ($17,832).
Section · Investment Thesis
Why this property.
This is a brand-new two-storey detached home in Pickering's Dunbarton neighbourhood, listed at $1,188,800. The property offers 4+2 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and two kitchens, with a fully finished basement featuring a builder-constructed legal separate entrance. That configuration is the central investment angle: the legal lower-level suite provides genuine in-law or supplementary rental optionality without the cost and permitting risk of retrofitting an older home.
The financial picture is constrained by the price-to-rent relationship typical of new-build detached product in Durham. Estimated gross annual rent is $42,000, producing an estimated annual NOI of $18,708 and an estimated cap rate of 1.57%. Across the five leverage scenarios, estimated monthly cash flow is negative until the buyer is essentially all-cash: -$3,995.15 at 20% down, -$2,953.74 at 35%, -$1,912.34 at 50%, and -$176.67 at 75% down. Only the 100% cash scenario produces positive carry, at an estimated $1,559.00 per month and a 1.53% cash-on-cash return. The minimum recommended down payment to approach breakeven carry is 75%; full cash is required for positive monthly cash flow on the stated assumptions.
Leverage sensitivity is high. The swing between the 20% down and 100% cash scenarios is roughly $5,554 per month in mortgage cost, which dominates the return profile. Investors using conventional leverage should expect to fund a meaningful monthly shortfall and underwrite the hold on appreciation and principal paydown rather than current yield. The Dunbarton location, proximity to Highway 401 and Pickering GO Station, and top-ranked catchment schools support end-user demand and long-term resale, but recent sold comparables were not available for this analysis.
Recommended hold is 60+ months, with the thesis resting on long-term GTA appreciation, the dual-unit income flexibility from the legal basement suite, and end-user resale to a family buyer. This is not a cash-flow play at typical leverage. It suits a well-capitalized investor or a hybrid owner-occupant who will live upstairs and rent the legal lower suite to offset carrying costs.
Key features
- Brand-new 2-storey detached, 4+2 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, two kitchens
- Builder-installed legal separate entrance to finished basement suite
- Lower level includes two additional bedrooms, full bathroom, and second kitchen
- Primary suite with 5-piece ensuite; hardwood, pot lights, coffered ceilings on main floor
- Minutes to Highway 401 and Pickering GO Station
- Top-rated catchment: William Dunbar Public School and Dunbarton High School
- POTL fees include water, garbage removal, and snow removal
Original MLS description
Brand NEW home! This 2-storey detached home is located in one of Pickering's most desirable communities. Offering 4+2 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, and 2 Kitchens this residence showcases a refined blend of luxury, space, and modern design, complete with high-end upgrades and premium craftsmanship throughout. Step inside to a bright and expansive main floor where the living and dining areas are elegantly designed with hardwood flooring, pot lights, coffered ceilings, accent walls and a refined architectural touch. The designer kitchen is a true focal point, showcasing upgraded cabinetry, quartz countertops, and top-of-the-line appliances, seamlessly connected to the warm and inviting family room with a large fireplace. The second level features four large bedrooms, each filled with natural light through large windows. The primary suite offers a private retreat with a spa-inspired 5-piece ensuite and ample space for comfort and relaxation. The fully finished basement has a legal separate entrance made by the builder which adds outstanding versatility, complete with two additional bedrooms, a spacious modern bathroom and a well-designed kitchen that is ideal for an in-law suite or strong rental income! Ideally located this home is just minutes to Highway 401 and Pickering GO Station, making commuting seamless. Surrounded by top rated schools including William Dunbar Public School and Dunbarton High School, along with convenient access to The Shops at Pickering City Centre and Whites Road Shopping Centre. Enjoy nearby outdoor spaces such as Rotary Frenchman's Bay West Park, Progress Frenchman's Bay East Park, and Beach front Park. offering a well-rounded and connected lifestyle. The POTL fees includes FREE Water, garbage removal and Snow removal! (42813049)
Section · Neighborhood
Where it sits.
Dunbarton
Dunbarton is one of Pickering's established west-end communities, anchored by the William Dunbar Public School and Dunbarton High School catchments and well-served by retail at The Shops at Pickering City Centre and Whites Road Shopping Centre. Commuter access is a defining demand driver: the property is minutes from Highway 401 and Pickering GO Station, which connects to Union Station on the Lakeshore East line.
Lifestyle amenities include Rotary Frenchman's Bay West Park, Progress Frenchman's Bay East Park, and Beachfront Park along the Lake Ontario shoreline. The mix of schools, transit, and waterfront parks supports steady family-buyer demand, which underpins the long-term resale thesis for new-build detached product in this pocket.
Section · Risk
What could go wrong.
Honest framing of unknowns, assumptions, and downside scenarios.
High leverage sensitivity: estimated monthly cash flow is negative in all four financed scenarios (20%, 35%, 50%, and 75% down)
Estimated cap rate of 1.57% is below typical financing costs; thesis depends on appreciation and principal paydown, not current yield
Positive estimated cash flow only achieved at 100% cash purchase ($1,559.00/month)
Property tax shown as $0 in the financial inputs, likely because the home is brand-new and not yet assessed; actual tax burden will reduce NOI once assessed
Rent estimate sourced from widened comparables (17 comps); actual achievable rent for the full 4+2 configuration may vary
No recent sold comparables were available to triangulate value
Reported sqft of 185 appears to be a data field artifact and does not reflect actual home size
POTL (Parcel of Tied Land) ownership structure: confirm POTL fee amount, governance, and any restrictions before closing